Van Evera on the Cult of the offensive pre-First World War
States are also driven to expand by the need to control assets and create the conditions they require to secure themselves against aggressors, because security becomes a scarcer asset. Alliances widen and tighten as states grow more dependent on one another for security, a circumstance which fosters the spreading of local conflicts
states have greater incentive to mobilize first or strike first, if they can change the force ratio in their favor by doing so. This incentive leads states to mobilize or attack to seize the initiative or deny it to adversaries, and to conceal plans, demands, and grievances to avoid setting off such a strike by their enemies, with deleterious effects on diplomacy.
Third, “windows” of opportunity and vulnerability open wider, forcing faster diplomacy and raising the risk of preventive war. Since smaller shifts in force ratios have larger effects on relative capacity to conquer territory, smaller prospective shifts in force ratios cause greater hope and alarm, open bigger windows of opportunity and vulnerability, and enhance the attractiveness of exploiting a window by launching a preventive attack.
, states adopt more competitive styles of diplomacy-brinkmanship and presenting opponents with faits accomplis, for instance-since the gains promised by such tactics can more easily justify the risks they entail. At the same time, however, the risks of adopting such strategies also increase, because they tend to threaten the vital interests of other states more directly. Because the security of states is more precarious and more tightly interdependent, threatening actions force stronger and faster reactions, and the political ripple effects of faits accomplis are larger and harder to control.
Fifth, states enforce tighter political and military secrecy, since national security is threatened more directly if enemies win the contest for information.
Stephen Van Evera, The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War. International Security, Vol. 9, No. 1 (Summer, 1984), pp. 58-107