Van Evera on beliefs about threats to German independence (pre-1914)

Prewar statements by German leaders and intellectuals reflected a pervasive belief that German independence was threatened unless Germany won changes in the status quo. Kaiser Wilhelm foresaw a “battle of Germans against the Russo-Gauls for their very existence,” which would decide “the existence or non-existence of the Germanic race in Europe,” declaring: “The question for Germany is to be or not to be.” His Chancellor, Bethmann Hollweg, wondered aloud if there were any purpose in planting new trees at his estate at Hohenfinow, near Berlin, since “in a few years the Russians would be here anyway.” The historian Heinrich von Treitschke forecast that “in the long run the small states of central Europe can not maintain themselves,” while other Germans warned, “If Germany does not rule the world . . . it will disappear from the map; it is a of either or,” and “Germany will be a world power or nothing.”‘ Similarly, German military officers predicted that “without colonial possessions [Germany] will suffocate in her small territory or else will be crushed by the great world powers” and foresaw a “supreme struggle, in which the existence of Germany will be at stake. . .” Stephen Van Evera, The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War. International Security, Vol. 9, No. 1 (Summer, 1984), pp. 58-107